New Brackets, Week 10 schedule (10/30/08)

We're down to 35 teams remaining in the race, but the bigger picture shows 20 of the teams on the brink of elimination. In any given week, you could see the field narrowed by a bunch.

Eight games feature two teams still alive, including a battle of two of the four BCS conference unbeatens when Texas travels to Texas Tech on Saturday night. Those games are in bold at the bottom.

NEW BRACKETS

Perfect Health (4)
Texas, Alabama, Penn St., Texas Tech

Alive and Kicking (11)
Utah, Boise St., Tulsa, Ball St., Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Florida, Georgia, USC, Minnesota, Florida St.

Life Support (20)
TCU, BYU, Missouri, LSU, Oregon, California, Ohio St., Northwestern, Michigan St., Notre Dame, Maryland, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Boston College, UCONN, Louisville, West Virginia, South Florida, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati

THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE

South Florida at Cincinnati, 7:30 p.m., Thursday
West Virginia at Connecticut, Noon, Saturday
Wisconsin at Michigan St., Noon, Saturday
Northwestern at Minnesota, Noon, Saturday
Tulsa at Arkansas, 2 p.m., Saturday
Pittsburgh at Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m., Saturday
Arkansas St. at Alabama, 3 p.m. Saturday
Missouri at Baylor, 3 p.m. Saturday
Florida at Georgia, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Clemson at Boston College, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Iowa St. at Oklahoma St., 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Oregon at California, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Florida St. at Georgia Tech, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
BYU at Colorado St., 6 p.m., Saturday
Washington at USC, 6:30 p.m., Saturday
Louisville at Syracuse, 7 p.m., Saturday
Boise St. at New Mexico St., 7 p.m., Saturday
Texas at Texas Tech, 8 p.m., Saturday
TCU at UNLV, 8 p.m., Saturday
Nebraska at Oklahoma, 8 p.m., Saturday
Tulane at LSU, 8 p.m., Saturday
Utah at New Mexico, 9:30 p.m., Saturday

New brackets, Week 9 schedule (10/21/08)

Here are the new brackets as we lost five more teams this week, taking our total to 41.

Perfect Health (5)
Alabama, Texas, Penn St., Oklahoma St., Texas Tech

Alive and Kicking (18)
Utah, Boise St., Tulsa, Ball St., USC, Oklahoma, Florida, LSU, Georgia, Georgia Tech,
Florida St., Boston College, Ohio St., Northwestern, Minnesota, South Florida, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati

Life Support (18)
TCU, BYU, Oregon, Arizona, California, Missouri, Kansas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Michigan
St., Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville, UCONN, Maryland, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech,
North Carolina

Week 9 Schedule
Auburn at West Virginia, 7:30 p.m., Thursday
Boise St. at San Jose St., 9 p.m., Friday
Texas Tech at Kansas, Noon, Saturday
Boston College at North Carolina, Noon, Saturday
Wake Forest at Miami (Fl.), Noon, Saturday
Cincinnati at UCONN, Noon, Saturday
Northwestern at Indiana, Noon, Saturday
Minnesota at Purdue, Noon, Saturday
Eastern Michigan at Ball St., Noon, Saturday
Kentucky at Florida, 12:30 p.m., Saturday
Oklahoma at Kansas St., 12:30 p.m., Saturday
UNLV at BYU, 2 p.m., Saturday
Duke at Vanderbilt, 3 p.m., Saturday
Oklahoma St. at Texas, 3:30 p.m., Saturday
Georgia at LSU, 3:30 p.m., Saturday
Virginia Tech at Florida St., 3:30 p.m., Saturday
Virginia at Georgia Tech, 3:30 p.m., Saturday
N.C. St. at Maryland, 3:30 p.m., Saturday
UCLA at California, 3:30 p.m., Saturday
South Florida at Louisville, 3:30 p.m., Saturday
Rutgers at Pittsburgh, 3:30 p.m., Saturday
Michigan St. at Michigan, 3:30 p.m., Saturday
Colorado at Missouri, 6 p.m., Saturday
Wyoming at TCU, 6 p.m., Saturday
Alabama at Tennessee, 7:45 p.m. Saturday
Penn St. at Ohio St., 8 p.m., Saturday
Notre Dame at Washington, 8 p.m., Saturday
UCF at Tulsa, 8 p.m., Saturday
Oregon at Arizona St., 10 p.m., Saturday
USC at Arizona, 10:15 p.m., Saturday

Week 8 Preview (Part 1)

BYU at TCU, Thursday 8 p.m.

The Cougars are one of college football's most prolific passing programs ever, producing such quarterbacks as Steve Young, Jim McMahon and Heisman winner Ty Detmer. BYU still has that passing game working as it is eighth in the country in passing offense at 320.50 yards per game, and eighth in passing efficiency. The Cougars lead the Mountain West in passing offense, total offense and scoring.

But the Cougars have a new calling card as well, a very tough defense that has allowed 44 points in its five games against FBS opponents, including shutouts over UCLA and Wyoming. Including its win over Northern Illinois, BYU has allowed the second fewest points per game in the country, trailing only USC. The defense features some excellent linebackers in David Nixon, Matt Bauman and Coleby Clawson. They have helped the Cougars put up numbers good enough for the Top 20 Nationally in sacks, tackles for loss and turnover margin.

TCU's resume would look awfully similar to BYU's if not for one game - a 35-10 loss to prevous No. 1 Oklahoma. TCU is 5-1 against FBS competition, having allowed 38 points in the five wins. BYU is averaging more points and giving up less overall, but if you factor in the Oklahoma game and the fact that TCU is home, and well, this one is a toss up.

The Horned Frogs are led by a strong rushing attack that ranks 13th in the country, but no player averages more than 60 yards per game. In fact, quarterback Marcus Jackson leads the team in rushing.

BYU will have to account for linebacker Jerry Hughes in the passing game. Hughes has two intercpetions to go along with seven sacks, so he's a factor rushing and dropping into coverage.

Prediction: BYU 24, TCU 20

Best Games of Week 8

This week we'll try to preview the games of all five teams in the Perfect Health bracket, along with all the games in which two teams from the tournament play each other. I'll try to do a better job predicting these 13 games than I did last week's 11 big games where I went 5-6.

Those games are:

BYU at TCU, 8 p.m. Thursday
Mississippi at Alabama, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Missouri at Texas, 8 p.m. Saturday
Michigan at Penn St., 4:30 p.m. Saturday
Baylor at Oklahoma St., 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Texas Tech at Texas A&M, Noon Saturday
Virginia Tech at Boston College, 8 p.m. Saturday
Kansas at Oklahoma, TBA Saturday
Vanderbilt at Georgia, TBA Saturday
Ohio St. at Michigan St., 3:30 p.m. Saturday
LSU at South Carolina, TBA Saturday
Wake Forest at Maryland, Noon Saturday
California at Arizona, 10 p.m. Saturday

Week 7 recap (10/12/08)

After 16 teams bit the dust last week, only six squads dropped out of the tournament this week. Nebraska, Colorado, Illinois, Wisconsin, Auburn, and Clemson all lost for the third time this year, and for a BCS conference school that means you're out of the running for a National Championship. Four of those schools all had dreams of an NC coming into the season, but reality hit Illinois, Wisconsin, Auburn and Clemson quickly and harshly.

Here are the new brackets for our 45 remaining teams:

Perfect Health (5)
Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma St., Texas Tech, Penn St.

Alive and Kicking (28)
BYU, Utah, Boise St., Tulsa, Ball St., USC, California, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Florida, Vanderbilt, LSU, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida St., Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Boston College, Michigan St., Ohio St., Northwestern, Minnesota, South Florida, Pittsburgh, UCONN, Cincinnati

Life Support (12)
TCU, Western Michigan, Oregon, Arizona, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville, Duke, Maryland, Kansas St., South Carolina, Kentucky

Game Previews Week 7 (Part 3)

LSU at Florida

I hate to disrespect the defending national champions, but are they the Paper Tigers? Two of LSU wins have come over an FCS school and North Texas, maybe the worst team in the FBS (they lost 42-10 to Florida International - at home!)

In the other two games, LSU gave up 21 points to Auburn and 24 points to Mississippi St. Those two teams scored a combined five points against each other earlier last year, and are infamous for their offensive woes this season (Auburn just fired its offensive coordinator).

LSU is still certainly dangerous. They are 24th in rushing offense and 28th in total offense. Charles Scott is seventh in the country in rushing, and the ever-dangerous Trindon Holliday is second in the country in punt returns.

Florida has its own dangerous kick and punt returner in Brandon James, and the Gators would do well to get him some offensive touches as only Percy Harvin and Tim Tebow have show to be consistent threats. Heralded running back Chris Rainey could also use some more action.

Prediction: Florida 25, LSU 22

Other Predictions

Wisconsin 20, Penn St. 17
Texas Tech 57, Nebraska 20
Notre Dame 28, North Carolina 20
Illinois 23, Minnesota 13
Kansas 34, Colorado 17
Kentucky 24, South Carolina 23

Game Previews for Week 7 (Part 2)

Oklahoma St. at Missouri, Saturday

The Cowboys have been one of the more unheralded undefeated teams, mainly because they play in the same conference as highly-regarded unbeatens Oklahoma, Texas and Missouri. Do the Cowboys deserve to be held in the same regard?

The Cowboys are 4-0 in their FBS games, outscoring their opponents by 26 points per game. Sounds like a good start. The problem? Those four teams are a combined 5-13 in their FBS games. Even taking out their Ok. St. losses, they are still 5-9.

Still, Oklahoma St. has a lot working for them, including a balanced offensive attack. Kendall Hunter is fifth in the country in rushing yardage per game, while Zac Robinson is third in passing efficiency.

Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin get all the attention on the offensive side of the ball for the Tigers, but they have a clear defensive star as well in linebacker Sean Weatherspoon. Weatherspoon has three interceptions, 60 tackles, 11 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks on the year.

Prediction: Missouri 47, Oklahoma St. 33


Michigan St. at Northwestern, Saturday


Michigan St.'s Javon Ringer took a break last week, carrying only 25 times for 91 yards. He had carried 34 times or more in his four previous games. Ringer is averaging less than five yards per carry, but the Spartans keep giving it to him, and last I checked three straight runs of four yards nets you a first down.

Northwestern has shown to be a strong defensive team, stopping the run and pass equally and posting the nation's 37th best team in total defense and 13th best team in scoring defense. Is that the schedule talking? Two of Northwestern's four FBS opponents are among the 14 teams winless against FBS competition.

Prediction: Michigan St. 20, Northwestern 10

Game Previews for Week 7 (Part 1)

Clemson at Wake Forest (Thursday)

Clemson came into this season with high expectatins, but the Tigers were cut off at the pass in week one by the new darling of college football, Alabama. Either Clemson was never that good to begin with, or haven't recovered, as it has beaten North Carolina St. 27-9 and lost to Maryland 20-17 at home in its two FCS games since.

The Tigers don't rank in the top 20 nationally in any major category, and don't lead the ACC in any either. Remember that's with two FBS games on the schedule.

The rushing game behind C.J. Spiller and James Davis was supposed to be the anchor of the team, but Clemson is just fifth in the ACC in rushing. They are 10th in turnover margin, sacks and tackles for loss.

Wake Forest comes off a crushing loss to Navy that sent the Demon Deacons down to the second tier. Wake Forest gets it done through the air on offense and defense, as the Demon Deacons lead the conference in passing and are second in pass defense (fifth nationally) behind Georgia Tech. Quarterback Riley Skinner leads the conference in passing efficiency, while DB Kevin Patterson has three interceptions in four games.

Wake Forest is also one of the top teams in turnover margin, so Clemson will have to start holding on to the ball to have a chance. Meanwhile, Wake's Sam Swank leads in the country in field goals at 2.5 per game.

Prediction - Wake Forest 27, Clemson 17


Texas vs. Oklahoma in Dallas (Saturday)

The Longhorns went through the first three weeks without playing a BCS conference team, but they didn't stop dominating once Arkansas and Colorado showed up on the schedule, either.

Texas ranks in the Top 39 of every major category nationally except two - punt returns and passing defense. The Longhorns give up 244 yards per game through the air, and while that could largely be because Texas always gets out to a big early lead, be sure that Oklahoma will test the secondary early and often. Texas will need pressure from Brian Orakpo, who leads the conference in sacks per game and is fourth in tackles for loss.

The game will feature the two conference leaders in passing efficiency (third and fourth nationally) in Texas' Colt McCoy and Oklahoma's Sam Bradford. McCoy's favorite targets include Quan Cosby and Jordan Shipley. The Longhorns haven't shown much of a running game as McCoy leads the team.

Oklahoma's offense is a little more conventional as it features running back DeMarco Murray, who is averaging over 87 yards per game. Defensively, the Sooners are No. 1 in passing efficiency.

Prediction: Oklahoma 34, Texas 28.

Games of the Week (Week 7)

Twenty-two of the 51 teams remaining in our tournament will play in games against each other this week in what could be one of the more impactful schedule of games all season.

Here's the schedule. The number in parenthesis represents which bracket the team is located. (1) is Perfect Health, (2) is Alive and Kicking, and (3) is Life Support.

Thursday
Clemson (3) at Wake Forest (2)

Saturday
Texas (1) vs. Oklahoma (1) in Dallas
Oklahoma St. (1) at Missouri (1)
Michigan St. (2) at Northwestern (1)
LSU (1) at Florida (2)
Penn St. (1) at Wisconsin (3)
Nebraska (3) at Texas Tech (1)
Notre Dame (2) at North Carolina (2)
Minnesota (2) at Illinois (3)
Colorado (3) at Kansas (2)
South Carolina (3) at Kentucky (2)

Tournament update/brackets (10/5/08)

We lost 16 of our 67 tournament teams this week, taking us to 51 remaining.

The team with the most preseason hype that bit the dust was Arizona St. The Sun Devils got caught in a trap game before their big showdown with Georgia, falling to UNLV in a big upset. They then went out and lost the nationally televised Georgia game, then fell again to a very good Cal team on Saturday.

Big powers like Miami and Michigan also suffered loss No. 3 on Saturday, but not much was expected from those two this year.

Mississippi and Oregon St. had probably the two biggest upsets of the year with wins over Florida and USC, respectively, and they both proved how big those upset were by losing their third game of the year Saturday.

Fresno St. is always a "BCS buster" candidate, but after losing to Wisconsin a few weeks ago, the Bulldogs lost again to Hawaii on Saturday for loss No. 2 and an exit from the tournament. The only non-BCS teams anywhere near a championship opportunity are undefeated BYU, Boise St., Utah, Ball St. and Tulsa, and one-loss TCU and Western Michigan. Everyone besides this Super 7 has lost at least two games.

Three teams lost their Perfect Health status this week. South Florida and UCONN from the Big East, along with Kentucky from the SEC all suffered loss No. 1 in '08. The 1o remaining teams in the bracket hail from just three conference - the Big 12, SEC and Big Ten. Because of championship games, only one can emerge from the Big 12 and SEC, but Penn St. and Northwestern don't play this year, and since the Big 10 doesn't have a championship game, both could emerge unbeaten. That means only through the first week of October, we know there could be a maximum of four undefeated teams from the BCS come the end of the season. The Mountain West, WAC, MAC and Conference USA could also produce one.

New brackets for our 51 remaining teams:

PERFECT HEALTH (10)
Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St., Alabama, LSU, Vanderbilt, Penn St., Northwestern.

ALIVE AND KICKING (26)
BYU, Utah, Boise St., Ball St., Tulsa, USC, Arizona, California, Georgia Tech, Florida St., Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Boston College, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Minnesota, Ohio St., Michigan St., Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, South Florida, UCONN, Cincinnati, Kansas.

LIFE SUPPORT (15)
TCU, Western Michigan, Oregon, Clemson, Duke, Maryland, West Virginia, Illinois, Wisconsin, Louisville, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas St., Auburn, South Carolina.

Weekday results

Eliminations

Oregon St. found out it's not good enough to just rev it up once a year. A week after shocking No. 1 USC, the Beavers lost 31-28 to another unbeaten team, Utah. The Utes scored 11 points in the final few minutes to pull out the win and stay in the Alive and Kicking bracket.

Louisiana Tech lost to Boise St. on Wednesday night and dropped down to Dead and Buried, not they weren't anyway. Tech couldn't handle the blue turf, falling 38-3 to the undefeated Broncos.

Movement

South Florida dropped from Perfect Health to Alive and Kicking with a 26-21 loss to Pittsbugh on Thursday night. The banged up Bulls defense couldn't keep up with Shady McCoy, allowing the Stache to get one of his biggest wins at Pitt. The Panthers are also in Alive and Kicking with their only loss coming at home to Bowling Green. That will haunt Pitt if they are able to put together a run here, which is unlikely, yes, but not out of the question in the Big East.

BYU looks to stay in the second bracket Friday night vs. Utah St., while Cincinatti looks to do the same against Marshall.

This Week's Schedule (10/4/08)

There are two true elimination games this week, so at most we'll have 65 teams alive next week. Expect a lot less then that.

The first sees Illinois go to the Big House to meet a Michigan squad still flying high from last week's upset of Wisconsin. Illinois came into the year with big expectations, but have only a 3-point win over Louisiana-Lafayette in three Division I games.

The second features another team that pulled an upset last week, Mississippi. The Rebels host South Carolina a week after shocking Florida in Gainesville. The Gamecocks' two losses have each come by seven points to Vanderbilt and Georgia, who have one loss between them. Mississippi has also lost close in its two defeats, one to Vandy and one to Wake Forest.

The Alive and Kicking bracket features three games that will send some teams to Life Support.

Duke travels to Georgia Tech in an ACC clash that sports two coaches new to their programs making positive impacts in Duke's David Cutcliffe and Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson.

Wisconsin returns home after a shocking loss in the Big House, this time to meet another Big 10 power, Ohio St. Voters won't look kindly on a 2-loss Ohio St. program after consecutive losses in the BCS title game, so the Buckeyes need this one badly to stay in the championship hunt.

USC will try to put its loss to Oregon St. behind it as the Trojans host Oregon at 8 p.m. Saturday. Oregon's loss came by five at home to unbeaten Boise St., so this could be a good one. Probably not a good spot for the Ducks, however, as the Trojans will likely come out a little peeved after seeing their undefeated dreams spoiled.

There's one Perfect Health bracket game this week as Alabama hosts Kentucky at 3:30 p.m. Saturday. Kentucky has yet to be tested, winning its two Division I games over Louisville and Middle Tennessee St, the latter of which came when the Blue Raiders were stopped at the 1-yard line as time expired down 20-14.

The Tiers

Since this tournament is triple elimination - double in the case of the non-BCS schools - we'll need to have brackets to place the remaining 67 teams.

The first bracket will contain undefeated teams. Would an undefeated non-BCS team make the championship game over a pair of high-profile, one-loss BCS schools? Probably not, so we'll only put the undefeated BCS schools in the first bracket, which we'll call Perfect Health.

The second bracket - Alive and Kicking - will contain BCS schools with one loss and non-BCS schools that are undefeated. These teams will have a strike against them, either a loss or their schedule, but will still be in the hunt for the NC game.

The third bracket - Life Support - will contain BCS schools with two losses and non-BCS schools with one loss. All these teams know they are extinct with one more loss.

Here's how the brackets break down after five weeks of action:

PERFECT HEALTH (13)
Oklahoma, Alabama, Penn St., Missouri, Oklahoma St., LSU, UCONN, Northwestern, South Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Texas and Texas Tech.

ALIVE AND KICKING (31)
BYU, Boise St., Utah, Ball St., Tulsa, USC, Georgia Tech, Florida St., Florida, Georgia, California, Oregon, Auburn, Virginia Tech, Michigan St., Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Colorado, North Carolina, Duke, Ohio St., Maryland, Pittsburgh, Nebraska, Arizona, Cincinnati, Kansas St., Wisconsin, Kansas, Boston College, Minnesota.

LIFE SUPPORT (23)
Louisiana Tech, Fresno St., TCU, Western Michigan, Air Force, Miami, Iowa, Clemson, West Virginia, Illinois, Baylor, Louisville, Purdue, Iowa St., Mississippi, Oregon St., Arizona St., Stanford, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Michigan, Arkansas, Indiana.

DEAD AND BURIED (57)
UCLA, Tennessee, North Carolina St., Washington, Washington St., Mississippi St., Virginia, Rutgers, Syracuse, Akron, Utah St., New Mexico, Middle Tennessee St., Buffalo, Florida International, Toledo, Memphis, Houston, Louisiana-Lafayette, Wyoming, UTEP, Temple, Florida Atlantic, Ohio, Central Florida, Eastern Michigan, UAB, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, Kent St., Idaho, SMU, Army, San Diego St., Marshall, East Carolina, Tulane, Rice, Southern Miss., Arkansas St., Navy, Central Michigan, Colorado St., Troy, San Jose St., Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, New Mexico St., Nevada, UNLV, Miami (Oh.), Hawaii.

Getting started

It is said on numerous occasions throughout the college football season.

"Every week is the playoffs!"

That's usually the commentators or studio hosts trying to justify why one of America's biggest sports still doesn't have a fair and complete way of determining a national champion. Even in this era of the BCS National Championship game, we still have situations where the No. 3 ranked team cries foul - or worse - we end up with split national champions like we did with USC and LSU in 2003.

So, yes, I would like a playoff system. You would like a playoff system. Paris Hilton would like a playoff system. My son Wilfredo would like a playoff system - and he's a 7-year-old Filipino living with his stripper-turned-hair stylist mother in Manila. Don't ask.

But the cold, hard fact appears to be that we're not getting one anytime soon. So in lieu of that, we will treat every week like a playoff, and that the season is one big tournament, just like Rece Davis wants us to do.

The first thing we need to figure out is how you get eliminated from this tournament. That's pretty easy. College football never had a legit two-loss champion until LSU turned the trick last year. With the addition of the 12th game for all teams, and a 13th for some of the conferences with championship games, this could be a trend that continues.

That means if you lose three games, you're out. No less than 34 teams have already reached three losses. Of course, a lot more than that are out because a school from a non-BCS conference with two losses would never play for the national championship. It's a pretty good bet they wouldn't even make it with one in the current format, but for the purposes of this exercise, we will only eliminate the two-loss non-BCS schools. That's another 18 schools out.

So with those 52 schools out, that leaves us with 67 still in play as of this writing on 10/1/08. We'll get to them in a future post, first here are the 34 teams with three losses and the additional 18 teams with two losses from non-BCS conferences.

THREE OR MORE LOSSES (34)
UCLA, Tennessee, North Carolina St., Washington, Washington St., Mississippi St., Virginia, Rutgers, Syracuse, Akron, Utah St., New Mexico, Middle Tennessee St., Buffalo, Florida International, Toledo, Memphis, Houston, Louisiana-Lafayette, Wyoming, UTEP, Temple, Florida Atlantic, Ohio, Central Florida, Eastern Michigan, UAB, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, Kent St., Idaho, SMU, Army, San Diego St.

TWO LOSSES FROM NON-BCS CONFERENCES (18)
Marshall, East Carolina, Tulane, Rice, Southern Miss., Arkansas St., Navy, Central Michigan, Colorado St., Troy, San Jose St., Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, New Mexico St., Nevada, UNLV, Miami (Oh.), Hawaii.